Passes & Canyons Blog

A statistical analysis appears to show that a new motorcycle crash study can produce statistically valid results even if the number of crashes studied is fewer than 900. That figure is important because about half the money earmarked for the study has been withheld by the Motorcycle Safety Foundation (MSF) because that organization’s board stated previously that it does not believe a study of fewer than 900 crashes can be adequate.

So now that Dr. Samir Ahmed, of Oklahoma State University, the head researcher on the project, has completed this analysis the obvious question is whether the MSF will change its mind. The initial response appears to be no.

The MSF sent me this response today in answer to my question about whether the board would be reconsidering its prior decision:

The MSF has not learned anything new that changes its position on this study because it still will not provide sufficient statistical significance of the OECD identified study variables. The study also will not produce results, in our estimation, that can be reliably correlated with studies in other countries, which is important to our multi-national member companies.

Because the response was so brief I emailed the MSF asking some follow-up questions, such as whether this statement comes after looking at Dr. Samir’s data and rejecting his conclusion, or whether the MSF board is still considering the data and is not yet ready to comment. I’ll let you know what I find.

Without the money pledged by MSF members and members of the Motorcycle Industry Council, the study can only afford to study 300 crashes. Dr. Ahmed intends to proceed with the study to whatever extent funding allows.

Recent from National Motorcycle Examiner
Rationale of motorcycle crash study statistical analysis explained

Biker Quote for Today

It takes 12 HP to ride around the world–the rest is wheelspin.

What’s the weirdest thing you ever hit, or almost hit, on your motorcycle? That’s a thread on Adventure Riders that I like to pass along periodically and I see the last time I did was July, six months ago. Time for another.
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I was lane splitting and decided for some reason to stop splitting, slow down and rejoin the lane to my right, even though the speed of traffic hadn’t changed. A second later the door of a mini-van just ahead to the left opens – yes while still moving – a passenger begins throwing up – that was a close call!
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Back in ’86 I was riding my R100S on the M5 Motorway, traffic was light and I was going well, I saw the car in front of me twitch and then hit his wash/wipe, then a sound like someone throwing a handful of gravel at my visor/screen and I was effectively blinded, some kind of clear goo was covering my visor, a few miles on there was some services, I pulled in and cleaned the goo from my visor, still unsure what I had hit close inspection between the engines cooling fins revealed, I had hit a swarm of bees.
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King Kong’s toilet paper. Headed north on the interstate into Albuquerque a semi truck was hit with a sudden microburst of wind that knocked it on its side. It skidded along the pavement, the back doors came open and ginormous rolls of paper fell out and unrolled everywhere. These things were about 4 ft in diameter and well, similar proportions to toilet paper. Made for some interesting moving obstacle avoidance. Luckily I was far enough back I didn’t get blown over too and could stop in time and help the driver climb out.
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I was riding at the front of a pack of bikes on 27 south of Jackson, MI, headed towards a party/chili fest. I ran over a dead woodchuck which was then launched out from under my bike rearwards into the unsuspecting pack of about 15 bikes, all riding side by side with the odd man following in the middle behind the last two bikes. Mostly Harleys, ATGATT consisted of t-shirts and half helmets. Mr. Woodchuck hit the bike behind me, and was sent through the pack like a stinking, wet, furry pinball. Everybody got some, especially the last guy in the middle who got him right in the chest and was almost knocked off his bike.
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Ripping down the road on a CBR900 in NH with my visor open…hit a moth the size of a bird…it flew right in my helmet and exploded on my face…couldn’t see anything at all…it was wiggling and flapping and oozing down my face…coasted to a stop with my eyes closed…wipped my helmet off and smeared moth goo all over my head…thank God there were no cars on my ass…yanked off my helmet…there was goo everywhere…so nasty…I think it was a Lunar moth…not fun.
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A draft horse that was in the road in Colorado because a mudslide had flattened the fence. As I approached he spun around and I ducked under his head.
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Today while cruising the back roads of NC in the foothills, something catches my eye on my right side. I look over to see a hawk flying helmet high the same speed (30ish) about 4 feet away. It seemed like 5 minutes although it was about 20 seconds that he just flew along side. Trying to look in front of me so as to not hit something else, he all of a sudden flies right in front of my windscreen and scared the shit out of me. Managed to keep it upright. I thought his wing brushed my windscreen he was that close. That will get your heart pumping.
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Driving to my parents house from school saturday afternoon I ran into an entire SWARM of Bras and thongs. All colors, maybe 60 of em. Girl getting picked up by her parents had one of those Target/Walmart plastic cases full of her intimates blow off. That girl has to be PISSED, they looked expensive. Oh, I’m guessing a C cup, for those who wanted to know.
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One of those big, 3″ grasshoppers. Which, in and of itself, doesn’t sound like much. But I caught the damned thing full on in the throat at about 60mph. Little tiny country road with no shoulder and no place to pull over. I wheezed and gagged for what felt like a mile before I found a safe place to pull off. I ordered a windshield the next day.
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Five soccer balls, a Lazy Boy recliner and a couch in the fast lane of I-270 in St. Louis. They fell off of the truck in front of me…the couch was the most challenging to avoid as it exploded into chunks of wood, springs and foam!
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Bread. Lots of bread. Loaves, hamburger buns, hotdog buns, dinner rolls. Scattered all over the highway. I dodged em, but I’m guessing that hitting a large loaf of bread wrapped in plastic would be kinda like hitting an ice patch.
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Just a close call for me… Last week trying to beat the storm clouds home a bolt of lightning hit a transformer I was zipping past…BIG boom lotsa light and sparks everywhere asshole firmly puckered to seat. Then just as I was starting to relax I remembered a small dip in the road ahead. Trying to plan a bit ahead I slid to the inside of the lane to minimize any possible puddle/motorcycle issues. Yup good plan…until I realized water was already half way into the other lane. That’s right two puckers in one simple ride home. and another valuable lesson…an SV1000 can be a jetski on occasion. I drank some rum when I got home.
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I fishied on the guts of a deer yesterday. Interrupted a hot meal being had by the vultures and when one took off, it still had intestine in its clutches. It pulled the the innards across the only part of the road I could go on. Oncoming traffic on the left and a ditch to my right.
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This spring I went on my first ride of the season and was behind a pickup delivering phone books when evidently a box of plastic bags opened up and several hundred came blowing out and right at me. One landed across my face shield blinding me and several wrapped across my arms and chest. I could see just enough of the edge of the road to slow down and stop with out crashing. Last I saw of the truck it was still going and blanketing the highway in a tornado of plastic.
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So there we go. The craziness continues. Be careful out there!

Recent from National Motorcycle Examiner
Top Motorcycle Examiner stories of 2009

Biker Quote for Today

Midnight bugs taste best.

“Accidents caused by the infrastructure account for 14% of the total according to MAIDS.”

That quote in a press release caught my eye. I’m signed up to receive press releases from a lot of organizations and this latest one is from the ACEM, the European Motorcycle Industry. MAIDS is the Motorcycle Accidents In-Depth Study which analyzed more than 900 motorcycle and moped accidents during the period 1999-2003 in five sampling areas located in France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain and Italy.

The release went on to say “Poor conditions of many European roads and city streets and the fact that PTW’s specific needs are still often neglected in road engineering are the main reasons for this situation. Rider behaviour in addressing each situation plays therefore a major role in PTW safety.”

PTW, by the way, stands for “powered two wheelers.”

So how often do you think about accidents being caused by poorly designed or maintained roadways? That really doesn’t cross my mind at all, so to see that 14 percent of motorcycle accidents are blamed on the infrastructure is an eye-opener. And it demonstrates the value that can come out of the new motorcycle safety study here in the U.S. If recurring types of such defects can be identified then municipalities and other governmental entities can be more aware of the need to rectify these situations.

At the same time, I consider this argument a little specious. Each of us is responsible at all times for our own safety. If you crashed on a piece of road and someone else didn’t, you did something wrong, while they did the same thing right. We can’t count on all roads we ride being perfect so you’d better ride in control at all times and respond to reality. The life you save may be your own.

Recent from National Motorcycle Examiner
Basket-case motorcycle restoration: Hard work, and then satisfaction

Biker Quote for Today

When in doubt, slow down. No one has ever hit something too slow.

I went to the sources and can now give you the full scoop on the status of the Motorcycle Crash Causation Study. I had reported earlier that the Motorcycle Safety Foundation (MSF) was withholding the $2.8 million its members had committed because the reduced size of the study–due to lack of money–would not meet their requirement as adequate to the objectives.

What I found when I went looking for answers was that a huge part of the story was being totally overlooked. Yes, the MSF had decided to withhold its dollars, but everything I read suggested this was a final decision. Nothing could be further from the truth. In the words of MSF President Tim Buche, “The MSF has not shut the door.” He said that if new information suggests a statistically valid study can be conducted with fewer than 900 crashes studied, that information will be presented to the MSF board.

The reason this matters is because Dr. Samir Ahmed, the Oklahoma State University researcher heading the study, told me that at present, no one really knows how many crashes must be studied to develop statistically valid data. He and his colleagues are at this time doing a statistical analysis to come up with that number.

I asked Tim Buche whether, if the number arrived at is significantly below the 900 crashes threshold the MSF has demanded, would the MSF be open to reconsidering throwing their $2.8 million into the pot. And he said yes, and the decision the board would make would “depend on the quality of the work and the rationale.” He said the board would also weigh the opinions of other involved organizations, such as the National Transportation Safety Board, which has previously stated its conclusion that a minimum of 1,200 crashes should be studied in order to get useful data.

So that’s it in brief. The statistical analysis should be complete in about mid-December and then it will presumably take some time for the involved parties to study the new information and reach their conclusions. However, even if the MSF is still not satisfied that its dollars would be well spent, the situation will still be open-ended. Dr. Ahmed told me he is continuing to seek additional funding from other sources. Presumably if enough additional money can be raised, that amount might tip the scales such that the MSF’s money will be the capper.

In fact, I suspect that is exactly what the MSF intends. They’re using their substantial dollars as a carrot. This allows Dr. Ahmed to approach other funding sources with the idea that their contribution will be multiplied if it leads to release of the MSF funds. And even if that’s not the MSF strategy, it seems to that it’s exactly the way it will work.

Sure, at this moment, the economy sucks and money is tight, but this study will take several years. Presumably the economic picture will brighten in that time and money will become easier to come by. This is a story that is likely to play out over years, not days or weeks. We’ll just have to watch what unfolds.

Recent from National Motorcycle Examiner
Motorcycle Safety Foundation open to reconsidering safety study funding

Biker Quote for Today

You know what I like about motorcycles? Ridin’ ’em!

This is an update on Jim Campbell’s condition. I reported this on Examiner.com so rather than rewrite just for the sake of making it different I’m just going to copy/paste what I put up there. The photo is by Beth Egan, Jim’s wife.

My phone rang this afternoon and it was Jim Campbell on the line, calling from the Fort Worth hospital where he is still recovering from his horrific crash three weeks ago. Four weeks ago I wrote about how Jim had ridden 30,000 miles in 30 days to raise money for muscular dystrophy.

Jim was very upbeat and said he hopes to be released from the hospital next week. He suffered a broken neck, hip, and pelvis in the crash but feels fortunate.

“Not too many people would have walked away from what I went through,” he said. “I’ll recover fully.”

The accident occurred when traffic in the left-hand lane slowed abruptly. Jim pulled into the median but just after he did the car that had been in front of him did the same, hitting Jim and his Harley-Davidson Ultra Classic. This drove Jim into the road divider and, as he said, “I went from 70 to zero in one second.” A hole in his helmet attests to the force of the impact.

“That guy threw a card in my deck that I wasn’t ready to play,” he said.

While so many have been concerned for Jim’s well-being, Jim was feeling bad about his failure to get back in touch with people trying to reach him. The woman he had been working with at the Muscular Dystrophy Association had not heard about his accident until he called her yesterday. Of course she was shocked. And he was calling me to apologize for not returning my emails. Believe me, I told him not to worry about it.

Jim’s wife Beth had this to say on Jim’s 30K for MDA Facebook page: “Jim finally got moved to the PT floor in the hospital. He had a rough 1st day and was in a lot of pain today. Recovery is coming along, slowly but surely. Time and prayers are what Jim needs. Thank you to all who have sent flowers, cards & well wishes our way. We really do appreciate them and all of you.”

Recent from National Motorcycle Examiner
Some particulars clear, others still unclear in new motorcycle safety study

Biker Quote for Today

The rubber parts are supposed to be on the bottom.

Just 11 days ago I was reporting that the long-awaited new motorcycle safety study was ready to begin, after being seemingly derailed by a financing issue. Now I’m back to report that it’s not smooth sailing after all. And two of the big players on the team appear to be moving in opposite directions.

The safety study is to be funded in part by a government grant and in part by matching contributions. Among other donors, two of the big motorcycle organizations, the American Motorcyclist Association (AMA) and the Motorcycle Safety Foundation (MSF) had committed to helping fund the study. Now, AMA is in favor of pushing on even though the dollars committed will not be enough to do the full-scale study originally envisioned. The MSF, on the other hand, has said that “we believe the study will not provide sufficient statistical significance of the OECD identified study variables and the MSF Board of Trustees has determined that MSF must continue to make its commitment of funds contingent upon a sample size of at least 900 cases.”

Where this leaves the study is not at all clear. Fully $2.8 million of the money for the study was to have come from the motorcycle industry through the MSF. While the MSF statement wished the researchers well in achieving “what can only reasonably be expected,” without the MSF’s $2.8 million it would seem that even the limited study will be underfunded. In other words, the MSF figures they hold the trump card and they’re playing it. Full study or none.

The AMA reported the MSF’s statement but as yet has issued no follow-up statement of its own. We’ll just have to keep watching to see how this all plays out.

Recent from National Motorcycle Examiner
Trying a textile mesh motorcycle jacket after years of wearing leather

Biker Quote for Today

When you find yourself in a ditch the first thing to do is ease off the throttle.