Passes & Canyons Blog

I went to the sources and can now give you the full scoop on the status of the Motorcycle Crash Causation Study. I had reported earlier that the Motorcycle Safety Foundation (MSF) was withholding the $2.8 million its members had committed because the reduced size of the study–due to lack of money–would not meet their requirement as adequate to the objectives.

What I found when I went looking for answers was that a huge part of the story was being totally overlooked. Yes, the MSF had decided to withhold its dollars, but everything I read suggested this was a final decision. Nothing could be further from the truth. In the words of MSF President Tim Buche, “The MSF has not shut the door.” He said that if new information suggests a statistically valid study can be conducted with fewer than 900 crashes studied, that information will be presented to the MSF board.

The reason this matters is because Dr. Samir Ahmed, the Oklahoma State University researcher heading the study, told me that at present, no one really knows how many crashes must be studied to develop statistically valid data. He and his colleagues are at this time doing a statistical analysis to come up with that number.

I asked Tim Buche whether, if the number arrived at is significantly below the 900 crashes threshold the MSF has demanded, would the MSF be open to reconsidering throwing their $2.8 million into the pot. And he said yes, and the decision the board would make would “depend on the quality of the work and the rationale.” He said the board would also weigh the opinions of other involved organizations, such as the National Transportation Safety Board, which has previously stated its conclusion that a minimum of 1,200 crashes should be studied in order to get useful data.

So that’s it in brief. The statistical analysis should be complete in about mid-December and then it will presumably take some time for the involved parties to study the new information and reach their conclusions. However, even if the MSF is still not satisfied that its dollars would be well spent, the situation will still be open-ended. Dr. Ahmed told me he is continuing to seek additional funding from other sources. Presumably if enough additional money can be raised, that amount might tip the scales such that the MSF’s money will be the capper.

In fact, I suspect that is exactly what the MSF intends. They’re using their substantial dollars as a carrot. This allows Dr. Ahmed to approach other funding sources with the idea that their contribution will be multiplied if it leads to release of the MSF funds. And even if that’s not the MSF strategy, it seems to that it’s exactly the way it will work.

Sure, at this moment, the economy sucks and money is tight, but this study will take several years. Presumably the economic picture will brighten in that time and money will become easier to come by. This is a story that is likely to play out over years, not days or weeks. We’ll just have to watch what unfolds.

Recent from National Motorcycle Examiner
Motorcycle Safety Foundation open to reconsidering safety study funding

Biker Quote for Today

You know what I like about motorcycles? Ridin’ ’em!

Just 11 days ago I was reporting that the long-awaited new motorcycle safety study was ready to begin, after being seemingly derailed by a financing issue. Now I’m back to report that it’s not smooth sailing after all. And two of the big players on the team appear to be moving in opposite directions.

The safety study is to be funded in part by a government grant and in part by matching contributions. Among other donors, two of the big motorcycle organizations, the American Motorcyclist Association (AMA) and the Motorcycle Safety Foundation (MSF) had committed to helping fund the study. Now, AMA is in favor of pushing on even though the dollars committed will not be enough to do the full-scale study originally envisioned. The MSF, on the other hand, has said that “we believe the study will not provide sufficient statistical significance of the OECD identified study variables and the MSF Board of Trustees has determined that MSF must continue to make its commitment of funds contingent upon a sample size of at least 900 cases.”

Where this leaves the study is not at all clear. Fully $2.8 million of the money for the study was to have come from the motorcycle industry through the MSF. While the MSF statement wished the researchers well in achieving “what can only reasonably be expected,” without the MSF’s $2.8 million it would seem that even the limited study will be underfunded. In other words, the MSF figures they hold the trump card and they’re playing it. Full study or none.

The AMA reported the MSF’s statement but as yet has issued no follow-up statement of its own. We’ll just have to keep watching to see how this all plays out.

Recent from National Motorcycle Examiner
Trying a textile mesh motorcycle jacket after years of wearing leather

Biker Quote for Today

When you find yourself in a ditch the first thing to do is ease off the throttle.