Passes & Canyons Blog

I’ve discussed previously the statistical analysis Dr. Samir Ahmed conducted to determine how many crashes would need to be studied to produce a solid motorcycle crash study. I had also passed along the Motorcycle Safety Foundation’s (MSF) response to my question about whether the analysis sways their thinking at all on providing the funds they have raised to conduct the study. That response was a bit brief and not totally clear, in my opinion, so I sent some follow-up questions. Here are the question I asked.

When I spoke with Tim Buche he told me that the MSF was open to new information and that once Dr. Ahmed had completed his statistical analysis that information would be presented to the board for consideration. Any decision to revise the previous decision would “depend on the quality of the work and the rationale.”

First, has the MSF board taken a look at Dr. Samir’s analysis? And considering your statement to me, does this mean the board questions the quality of the work and/or the rationale? If that is the case, can you tell me what it is about the quality of the work or the rationale that you find lacking?

Or is this still under consideration at this time, with the MSF simply not ready yet to make any statement in regard to the statistical analysis?

Well, I got a response and it was not very helpful, but it does seem to say that the MSF is unmoved and will not be opening its wallet for this study. Here’s the response.

Unfortunately, at this time the Motorcycle Safety Foundation has nothing additional to add beyond the statement we sent to you Monday, the information obtained during your interview with Tim Buche, and our original position paper.

That sounds pretty final. I guess we’ll get the best study $3 million will pay for, rather than a better study for $6 million to $7 million. I personally question the MSF’s decision but I’m sure they have their reasons. I’d just like a better idea what those reasons are, but they’re a private organization and don’t have to tell us.

Biker Quote for Today

Drop, Fall, and Down are 4-letter words

A statistical analysis appears to show that a new motorcycle crash study can produce statistically valid results even if the number of crashes studied is fewer than 900. That figure is important because about half the money earmarked for the study has been withheld by the Motorcycle Safety Foundation (MSF) because that organization’s board stated previously that it does not believe a study of fewer than 900 crashes can be adequate.

So now that Dr. Samir Ahmed, of Oklahoma State University, the head researcher on the project, has completed this analysis the obvious question is whether the MSF will change its mind. The initial response appears to be no.

The MSF sent me this response today in answer to my question about whether the board would be reconsidering its prior decision:

The MSF has not learned anything new that changes its position on this study because it still will not provide sufficient statistical significance of the OECD identified study variables. The study also will not produce results, in our estimation, that can be reliably correlated with studies in other countries, which is important to our multi-national member companies.

Because the response was so brief I emailed the MSF asking some follow-up questions, such as whether this statement comes after looking at Dr. Samir’s data and rejecting his conclusion, or whether the MSF board is still considering the data and is not yet ready to comment. I’ll let you know what I find.

Without the money pledged by MSF members and members of the Motorcycle Industry Council, the study can only afford to study 300 crashes. Dr. Ahmed intends to proceed with the study to whatever extent funding allows.

Recent from National Motorcycle Examiner
Rationale of motorcycle crash study statistical analysis explained

Biker Quote for Today

It takes 12 HP to ride around the world–the rest is wheelspin.

I went to the sources and can now give you the full scoop on the status of the Motorcycle Crash Causation Study. I had reported earlier that the Motorcycle Safety Foundation (MSF) was withholding the $2.8 million its members had committed because the reduced size of the study–due to lack of money–would not meet their requirement as adequate to the objectives.

What I found when I went looking for answers was that a huge part of the story was being totally overlooked. Yes, the MSF had decided to withhold its dollars, but everything I read suggested this was a final decision. Nothing could be further from the truth. In the words of MSF President Tim Buche, “The MSF has not shut the door.” He said that if new information suggests a statistically valid study can be conducted with fewer than 900 crashes studied, that information will be presented to the MSF board.

The reason this matters is because Dr. Samir Ahmed, the Oklahoma State University researcher heading the study, told me that at present, no one really knows how many crashes must be studied to develop statistically valid data. He and his colleagues are at this time doing a statistical analysis to come up with that number.

I asked Tim Buche whether, if the number arrived at is significantly below the 900 crashes threshold the MSF has demanded, would the MSF be open to reconsidering throwing their $2.8 million into the pot. And he said yes, and the decision the board would make would “depend on the quality of the work and the rationale.” He said the board would also weigh the opinions of other involved organizations, such as the National Transportation Safety Board, which has previously stated its conclusion that a minimum of 1,200 crashes should be studied in order to get useful data.

So that’s it in brief. The statistical analysis should be complete in about mid-December and then it will presumably take some time for the involved parties to study the new information and reach their conclusions. However, even if the MSF is still not satisfied that its dollars would be well spent, the situation will still be open-ended. Dr. Ahmed told me he is continuing to seek additional funding from other sources. Presumably if enough additional money can be raised, that amount might tip the scales such that the MSF’s money will be the capper.

In fact, I suspect that is exactly what the MSF intends. They’re using their substantial dollars as a carrot. This allows Dr. Ahmed to approach other funding sources with the idea that their contribution will be multiplied if it leads to release of the MSF funds. And even if that’s not the MSF strategy, it seems to that it’s exactly the way it will work.

Sure, at this moment, the economy sucks and money is tight, but this study will take several years. Presumably the economic picture will brighten in that time and money will become easier to come by. This is a story that is likely to play out over years, not days or weeks. We’ll just have to watch what unfolds.

Recent from National Motorcycle Examiner
Motorcycle Safety Foundation open to reconsidering safety study funding

Biker Quote for Today

You know what I like about motorcycles? Ridin’ ’em!

Just 11 days ago I was reporting that the long-awaited new motorcycle safety study was ready to begin, after being seemingly derailed by a financing issue. Now I’m back to report that it’s not smooth sailing after all. And two of the big players on the team appear to be moving in opposite directions.

The safety study is to be funded in part by a government grant and in part by matching contributions. Among other donors, two of the big motorcycle organizations, the American Motorcyclist Association (AMA) and the Motorcycle Safety Foundation (MSF) had committed to helping fund the study. Now, AMA is in favor of pushing on even though the dollars committed will not be enough to do the full-scale study originally envisioned. The MSF, on the other hand, has said that “we believe the study will not provide sufficient statistical significance of the OECD identified study variables and the MSF Board of Trustees has determined that MSF must continue to make its commitment of funds contingent upon a sample size of at least 900 cases.”

Where this leaves the study is not at all clear. Fully $2.8 million of the money for the study was to have come from the motorcycle industry through the MSF. While the MSF statement wished the researchers well in achieving “what can only reasonably be expected,” without the MSF’s $2.8 million it would seem that even the limited study will be underfunded. In other words, the MSF figures they hold the trump card and they’re playing it. Full study or none.

The AMA reported the MSF’s statement but as yet has issued no follow-up statement of its own. We’ll just have to keep watching to see how this all plays out.

Recent from National Motorcycle Examiner
Trying a textile mesh motorcycle jacket after years of wearing leather

Biker Quote for Today

When you find yourself in a ditch the first thing to do is ease off the throttle.